# The Power of the Confusion Matrix

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly integrated into various applications, the role of software testers has become more critical than ever. Testing AI systems requires specialized knowledge. In AI, the confusion matrix is commonly used to evaluate the performance of the AI model.

## What is a Confusion Matrix?

A confusion matrix is a table that is used to evaluate the performance of a classification model by comparing its predicted values to the actual values. It is also known as an error matrix, contingency table, or classification matrix. The confusion matrix summarizes the number of correct and incorrect predictions by the model, providing a comprehensive view of its performance. The matrix is usually represented in a table with rows and columns corresponding to the predicted and actual values, respectively. The four quadrants of the matrix represent:

- True positive (TP): The number of times the model correctly predicted a positive outcome.
- False positive (FP): The number of times the model predicted a positive outcome when the actual outcome was negative.
- True negative (TN): The number of times the model correctly predicted a negative outcome.
- False negative (FN): The number of times the model predicted a negative outcome when the actual outcome was positive.

## How Does the Confusion Matrix Work?

To better understand how the confusion matrix works, let’s take an example of a binary classification problem. Let’s assume we are building a model to predict whether a customer will buy a product or not based on their browsing history. We have a dataset with 1000 samples, out of which 800 are labeled as “no purchase” and 200 as “purchase.” We train the model on this dataset and test it on a separate dataset of 600 samples. The resulting confusion matrix looks like this:

Predicted No Purchase | Predicted Purchase | |
---|---|---|

Actual No Purchase | 450 | 50 |

Actual Purchase | 70 | 30 |

In this example, the confusion matrix tells us that the model correctly predicted 450 “no purchase” outcomes (true negatives) and 30 “purchase” outcomes (true positives). However, it also incorrectly predicted 50 “no purchase” outcomes (false positives) and 70 “purchase” outcomes (false negatives).

## How is a confusion matrix created?

Suppose we have a test set of 100 samples, with 60 samples labeled positive and 40 samples labeled negative. We run our classification model on the test set and obtain the following results:

Actual Label | Predicted Label |
---|---|

Positive | Positive |

Positive | Positive |

Positive | Negative |

Positive | Positive |

Negative | Negative |

Negative | Negative |

Negative | Positive |

Negative | Negative |

To create the confusion matrix, we first create an empty 2x2 matrix:

Predicted Positive | Predicted Negative | |
---|---|---|

Actual Positive | ||

Actual Negative |

We then fill in the matrix based on the results:

Predicted Positive | Predicted Negative | |
---|---|---|

Actual Positive | 3 (Total Positives) | 1 (False Negatives) |

Actual Negative | 1 (False Positives) | 5 (Total Negatives) |

## Using the Confusion Matrix to Test AI Systems

Now that we understand how the confusion matrix works, let’s look at how testers can use it to evaluate the performance of an AI system. There are several ways testers can use the confusion matrix to test an AI system:

- Calculate Accuracy: The confusion matrix allows testers to calculate the accuracy of the model, which is the number of correct predictions divided by the total number of predictions. By calculating accuracy, testers can evaluate the overall performance of the model and determine if it meets the desired level of accuracy.
- Identify False Positives and False Negatives: The confusion matrix helps testers identify false positives and false negatives. False positives are instances where the model incorrectly predicts a positive result, while false negatives are instances where the model incorrectly predicts a negative result. By identifying false positives and false negatives, testers can evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the model.
- Analyze Precision and Recall: Precision is the proportion of true positives among the total number of positive predictions, while recall is the proportion of true positives among the total number of actual positives. The confusion matrix allows testers to analyze both precision and recall, which can provide insight into the model’s performance for specific classes.
- Evaluate Class Imbalance: Class imbalance occurs when one class is significantly more prevalent in the dataset than others. The confusion matrix allows testers to evaluate class imbalance by comparing the number of actual positive and negative samples with the number of predicted positive and negative samples.
- Compare Models: Testers can use the confusion matrix to compare the performance of different models. By comparing the accuracy, precision, and recall of multiple models, testers can determine which model performs best for a specific task.
- Identify Model Bias: The confusion matrix can help testers identify model bias. Bias occurs when the model consistently misclassifies certain classes more often than others. By analyzing the confusion matrix, testers can identify which classes the model is biased towards and take steps to mitigate the bias.

By understanding how to use the confusion matrix, testers can become more effective at testing AI systems and ensuring that they are performing as expected.

## References

- Photo by cottonbro studio